Fight Overview

Two former champions, both trying to prove they're not done, headlining UFC Fight Night at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on July 18. That's the most honest way to frame this fight. Dricus Du Plessis steps back into the Octagon for the first time since losing the middleweight title to Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 319 last August, while Kamaru Usman, after snapping a three-fight losing streak with a decision win over Joaquin Buckley in June 2025, now makes his second appearance at 185 pounds with two-division history on his mind. Du Plessis is the -320 favorite and the higher-ranked fighter at No. 2, while Usman sits at No. 9. The gap on paper looks significant. Whether it holds up inside the cage for 25 minutes is a different question entirely.

Dricus Du Plessis

Du Plessis is 23-3 and has 20 finishes across those wins, which tells you pretty much everything about how he operates. He beat Strickland for the title, defended it against Adesanya, knocked out Whittaker, and then came unstuck against Chimaev, who dragged him into a wrestling-heavy fight and didn't let him breathe. The South African is at his most dangerous when he can dictate range and tempo, moving forward with combinations and using his physicality to wear opponents down over rounds. His chin has been tested and it's held up, mostly, but the Chimaev fight showed what happens when someone with real grappling credentials refuses to let him stand and bang. That's worth keeping in mind here, because Usman brings an almost identical threat to the table, and Du Plessis doesn't exactly have a reputation for elite takedown defense.

Kamaru Usman

Here's where it gets interesting. Most people are looking at Usman through the lens of his last two years at welterweight, three losses in a row, the Leon Edwards fights, the narrative of a guy past his prime chasing one more run. What gets underplayed is what Usman actually brings at 185. His wrestling was the foundation of one of the most dominant title reigns the welterweight division has ever seen, five defenses, guys like Covington, Masvidal, and Woodley couldn't solve him. At middleweight he's bigger, which means more comfortable, and his wrestling credentials don't disappear just because he got knocked out by a southpaw at 170. The Buckley win wasn't spectacular, honestly, but it was clean and it was convincing enough to suggest there's still something real here.

The Key Matchup

The tactical question nobody seems to want to engage with directly is whether Du Plessis's wrestling defense is good enough to stop someone like Usman from controlling where this fight takes place. It wasn't enough against Chimaev. Usman isn't Chimaev, obviously, but his base is similar, pressure wrestling, physical domination, grinding opponents into submission through volume and position rather than a single flashy finish. Du Plessis will want to keep this on the feet and make it a striking battle where his power and forward pressure make the difference. If Usman lets him do that, the -320 line probably reflects reality. If Usman treats this the same way he treated Covington and Woodley, meaning relentless takedowns, cage control, and grinding volume, this fight looks a lot more like the Chimaev fight than the odds would suggest.

Prediction

I'm going with Usman here, and I get that puts me firmly in the minority. Du Plessis is the bigger name right now and the heavier favorite, but the blueprint for beating him has already been printed out and handed to the division by Chimaev. Usman's wrestling is real, his conditioning over five rounds is as good as anyone's in the sport's history, and his fight IQ is elite. Du Plessis will make it competitive, land hard shots in the second and third, and the crowd will believe he's about to turn it around. I don't think he does. Usman by unanimous decision, something like 48-47 on the cards, close enough that nobody feels robbed but clear enough that the result makes sense on tape.

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